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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent underperformers rising together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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