Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
