Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
